Replication Data for: Federal fiscal budget forecast errors in Canada

This datafile presents the data used to accompany the paper entitled, Do Canadian fiscal budget forecasts contain political bias? Federal forecasts and outcomes: 1958/59 - 2023/24.

Does the governing party in a parliamentary government use the time gap between the forecasts made in the budget and their final realization to manipulate voters for electoral or partisan advantage? This hypothesis is tested on Canadian federal fiscal forecast errors made with respect to government expenditures, revenues and overall budgetary balance. The results find evidence consistent with a partisan bias but no evidence of forecasts being used to produce an election cycle. The data also suggests that the degree of manipulation increases with continued party incumbency.