The Canadian Journey to Sustainability in the Manufacturing Sector in the Context of the Global Stage

Countries encompassing 90% of the dollar value of manufactured products imported to Canada from 1990 to 2022 were investigated to explore Canada's standing in sustainability with respect to consumed goods produced via combustion. The goal was to investigate potential offshoring of manufacturing emissions from Canada to other countries and see whether the development level of the countries played a role. Human Development Index (HDI) data were acquired from the United Nations Development Programme (https://hdr.undp.org/data-center/human-development-index#/indicies/HDI), imports data were acquired from the Canadian International Merchandise Trade Web Application (https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/b1126a07-fd85-4d56-8395-143aba1747a4/resource/290f3412-e6b7-4811-b738-c360e11d22ef#additional-info), and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions data were acquired from the EDGAR Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/index.php/dataset_ap81). NOx emissions can be used as a surrogate for tracking sustainability with respect to carbon dioxide emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels. Piecewise linear regressions for each country were run correlating NOx emissions from manufacturing and HDI over the 32-year study period. The number of breakpoints allowed was equivalent to one less than the number of HDI categories spanned by the country over the study period (Low: < 0.550, Medium: 0.550 - 0.699, High: 0.700 - 0.800, Very High: > 0.800). The results showed that as the HDI category of the countries increased, the number of countries with a negative relationship between HDI and NOx emissions increased. This indicates that after a certain level of development, many countries reduce their combustion-related emissions as their HDI increases. The results also indicated that Canada has largely offshored their manufacturing emissions to China, as the consumption of imported manufactured goods consumed per person has increased while the onshore manufacturing emissions per person has decreased.本研究选取1990年至2022年间，加拿大进口制成品货值累计占比90%的所有国家作为研究对象，旨在探究加拿大在消费由燃烧过程生产的制成品相关的可持续性表现。本研究目标为考察加拿大制造业排放向他国转移的潜在可能性，并探讨国家发展水平是否对该转移现象产生影响。本研究的数据来源如下：人类发展指数（Human Development Index, HDI）数据取自联合国开发计划署（https://hdr.undp.org/data-center/human-development-index#/indicies/HDI）；进口贸易数据取自加拿大国际商品贸易Web应用程序（https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/b1126a07-fd85-4d56-8395-143aba1747a4/resource/290f3412-e6b7-4d56-8395-143aba17422ef#additional-info）；氮氧化物（nitrogen oxides, NOx）排放数据取自EDGAR全球大气研究排放数据库（https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/index.php/dataset_ap81）。氮氧化物可作为追踪化石燃料燃烧产生的二氧化碳排放相关可持续性的替代指标。本研究针对32年研究周期内的各国制造业氮氧化物排放与人类发展指数开展分段线性回归分析，允许的断点数量等于该国在研究周期内覆盖的人类发展指数类别数减一，其中人类发展指数类别划分为：低（<0.550）、中（0.550~0.699）、高（0.700~0.800）、极高（>0.800）。研究结果显示，随着国家人类发展指数等级提升，人类发展指数与氮氧化物排放呈负相关的国家数量随之增加。这表明，当发展水平达到一定阈值后，诸多国家会随着人类发展指数的提升，降低与燃烧过程相关的排放。研究结果同时表明，加拿大已将其制造业排放大量转移至中国：该国人均进口制成品消费量持续上升，而人均本土制造业排放量却不断下降。