Replication data for: Assessing the Dyadic Nature of the Democratic Peace

The literature on the democratic peace has emerged from two empirical claims: (1) Democracies are unlikely to conflict with one another, and (2) democracies are as prone to conflict with non-democracies as non-democracies are with one another. Together these assertions imply that the democratic peace is a dyadic phenomenon. There is strong support for the first observation, but much recent scholarship contravenes the second. This paper assesses whether the democratic peace is a purely dyadic, a monadic, or perhaps a mixed dyadic and monadic effect. Our analysis offers two important advances. First, our model directly compares the dyadic and monadic explanations by using the state as the unit of analysis rather than the potentially problematic dyad. Second, our model controls for an important but overlooked confounding variable: satisfaction with the status quo. Our results indicate that the initiation of violence within crises is predominantly a dyadic phenomenon, but we also find evidence suggesting a strong monadic effect regarding the emergence of crises.民主和平论（democratic peace）的相关研究肇始于两项经验性主张：（1）民主国家之间几乎不会爆发冲突；（2）民主国家与非民主国家发生冲突的概率，与非民主国家之间发生冲突的概率不相上下。上述两项主张共同表明，民主和平论属于双边（dyadic）层面的现象。现有研究对第一项主张提供了有力支撑，但近期诸多学术成果均驳斥了第二项主张。本文旨在探讨民主和平论究竟属于纯粹的双边效应、单边（monadic）效应，亦或是兼具双边与单边效应的混合效应。本研究实现了两项重要突破：其一，本研究以国家作为分析单元，而非存在潜在局限性的双边配对单元，以此直接对比双边与单边两种解释路径；其二，本研究控制了一项重要却长期被忽视的混淆变量：现状满意度。研究结果显示，危机内部的暴力发起行为主要属于双边层面现象，但同时我们也发现证据表明，危机的爆发存在显著的单边效应。