Replication Data for: Explaining the Wave of Foreign Participation in the Belt and Road Initiative: Evidence from Spatial Analysis

自2013年提出“一带一路”倡议以来，已有140个国家与中国签署了“一带一路”合作文件，这本身是一个令人瞩目的世界政治现象。然而，学界尚未结合经验证据系统性地理解“一带一路”倡议在全球扩散的过程和规律。本文从结构层面来理解“一带一路”的全球扩散，将其在国际社会的接纳过程理论化为“浪潮”——众多国家采纳相同政策的集群——的生成过程。在区分浪潮的触发机制和推进机制两个维度上的差异后，本文将共建“一带一路”视为一种纵向能动型浪潮。作为“一带一路”的发起者和倡导者，中国的纵向力量对这一浪潮的触发有着关键影响；浪潮的推进时机取决于参与国的能动性，它们的积极态度和选择对于“一带一路”的全球扩散不可或缺。在推断浪潮属性及其可观察影响的基础上，本文构建了一个涵盖192个国家在2014—2019年是否参与“一带一路”倡议的原始数据集，并借助一系列空间模型实证检验影响各国参与的具体因素。统计结果表明，各国加入“一带一路”的选择在时间和空间上呈现明显的集聚特征，邻国是否加入和中国的政策规划等因素对一国加入“一带一路”的决定有显著影响；相比之下，一国与中国双边关系中的变量没有显著地影响该国的政策选择。本文在理论和实证层面深化了关于“一带一路”倡议全球扩散的总体理解，对进一步推进“一带一路”有较大的现实意义。 Since 2013, when China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was unveiled, 140 states have signed cooperation documents with China, constituting an eye-catching phenomenon in world politics. Yet, few studies have empirically and systematically investigated BRI’s global diffusion. This article studies the phenomenon from a structural vantage point. It conceptualizes foreign participation in BRI as a “wave” formation – the clustering of similar policy choices made by different states. Typologizing waves according to mechanisms of trigger and advance, this article regards foreign participation in BRI as forming a vertical, agential wave. As the initiator and chief advocate of BRI, China’s vertical influence is key to the triggering of the wave. The timing of the wave’s advancement is contingent on the agency of other participating states – their positive attitudes and decisions are essential to BRI’s global diffusion. After inferring the BRI wave’s key features and observable implications, this article constructs an original dataset on whether 192 states sign on to BRI from 2014 to 2019, and conducts a series of spatial analyses of factors affecting a state’s choice. The results show that global records of participation in BRI are featured by temporal and spatial clustering. Both a state’s neighboring states’ decisions and China’s policies regarding BRI are significantly associated with one’s decision to join BRI. By contrast, variables related to a state’s bilateral relations with China are not statistically significant. This article contributes, both theoretically and empirically, to our overall understanding of BRI’s global diffusion, with important implications for its future developments.自2013年中国提出"一带一路"倡议（Belt and Road Initiative, BRI）以来，已有140个国家与中国签署了共建"一带一路"合作文件，这已然成为全球政治领域备受瞩目的现象。然而，当前学界尚未结合经验证据系统性地阐释"一带一路"倡议的全球扩散进程与内在规律。本文从结构主义视角切入这一议题，将国际社会对"一带一路"的接纳过程理论化为"浪潮"的生成进程——即众多国家相继采纳同类政策的集群效应。本文依据触发机制与推进机制的维度差异对浪潮进行分类，将"一带一路"的全球参与界定为一种纵向能动型浪潮。作为倡议的发起者与核心倡导者，中国的纵向影响力是触发该浪潮的关键因素；而浪潮的推进时机则取决于其他参与国的主体能动性，各国的积极态度与政策选择对"一带一路"的全球扩散不可或缺。在推演该"一带一路"浪潮的核心属性与可观测影响的基础上，本文构建了一套涵盖192个国家2014—2019年间是否签署"一带一路"合作文件的原始数据集，并通过一系列空间计量模型实证检验了影响各国参与决策的具体因素。实证结果显示，各国的"一带一路"参与决策呈现显著的时空集聚特征；一国周边国家的参与决策与中国的"一带一路"相关政策规划等因素，对该国的参与决策具有显著的正向影响。与之形成对比的是，该国与中国的双边关系相关变量并未对其政策选择产生统计显著的影响。本文从理论与实证两个层面深化了学界对"一带一路"倡议全球扩散的整体认知，对"一带一路"的后续推进具有重要的现实参考价值。