Posterior distribution median and 95% prediction intervals determined by ABC fitting of Approximate Bayesian Computation models for Hansen’s Disease to data simulated by the best-fit model.

The values fit were βM = 1.9, βP = 1.2, φM = 0.2, and φP = 0.2 for all but the North, where φ2 = 0.46. Version 4 consisted of fitting the regional best-fit model to each region’s observed data separately with both frequency and density-dependent transmission assumptions; all other versions used a hierarchical structure with density-dependent transmission in which at least some parameters were shared across regions, and fitting was done simultaneously across all 5 regions. Values in bold italics contained the simulated value within their range. Mean error refers to the average value of d per iteration of each version, based on a sample of 1,000 iterations, with confidence intervals based on 100 samples of 100 iterations each.