Causal structure (DAG in prose).

Causal structure (DAG in prose). Let GOS denote the time-varying geopolitical opportunity structure measured monthly as four components: External Threat Salience, International Reward Potential, Transnational Advocacy Channels, and Normative Diffusion/Media Amplification. Let POS denote domestic political opportunity (e.g., judicial openness, partisan incentives, institutional veto points, and the mobilizational capacity of civil society). In addition, This dataset contains the monthly Geopolitical Opportunity Structure (GOS) indicators for Taiwan and Japan from January 2014 through December 2019, compiled to support the analysis in the manuscript “The Geopolitics of Progress: Taiwan’s Democratic Identity, Contested Sovereignty, and the Strategic Imperative of Same‑Sex Marriage.” The dataset operationalizes four core indicators—external threat salience, international reward potential, transnational advocacy count, and normative diffusion—at the country‑month level and is intended for replication, robustness checks, and secondary analysis.