Data from: Predicting range-shift success potential for tropical marine fishes using external morphology

With global change accelerating the rate of species' range shifts, predicting which are most likely to establish viable populations in their new habitats is key to understanding how biological systems will respond. Annually, in Australia, tropical fish larvae from the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) are transported south via the East Australian Current (EAC), settling into temperate coastal habitats for the summer period, before experiencing near-100% mortality in winter. However, within 10 years, predicted winter ocean temperatures for the southeast coast of Australia will remain high enough for more of these so-called ‘tropical vagrants’ to survive over winter. We used a method of morphological niche analysis, previously shown to be an effective predictor of invasion success by fishes, to project which vagrants have the greatest likelihood of undergoing successful range shifts under these new climatic conditions. We find that species from the family of butterflyfishes (Chaetodontidae), and the moorish idol, Zanclus cornutus, are most likely to be able to exploit new niches within the ecosystem once physiological barriers to overwintering by tropical vagrant species are removed. Overall, the position of vagrants within the morphospace was strongly skewed, suggesting that impending competitive pressures may impact disproportionately on particular parts of the native community.随着全球变化加速物种分布范围转移的速率，预测哪些物种最有可能在新栖息地建立可存活种群，是理解生物系统将如何响应环境变化的核心议题。每年在澳大利亚，源自大堡礁（Great Barrier Reef，GBR）的热带鱼类幼体通过东澳大利亚海流（East Australian Current，EAC）向南输送，在夏季定居于温带沿岸生境，随后在冬季出现近乎100%的死亡率。然而，模型预测显示，未来10年内澳大利亚东南沿岸的冬季海洋温度将维持在足够高的水平，使得更多这类被称为"热带流浪者（tropical vagrants）"的个体能够顺利越冬。我们采用了一种此前被证实可有效预测鱼类入侵成功概率的形态生态位分析（morphological niche analysis）方法，对这些新气候条件下哪些热带流浪者最有可能成功实现分布范围转移进行了投影预测。研究发现，蝴蝶鱼科（Chaetodontidae）物种以及镰鱼（Moorish idol, Zanclus cornutus）最有可能在热带流浪者物种越冬的生理障碍被消除后，利用该生态系统内的全新生态位。总体而言，热带流浪者物种在形态空间（morphospace）中的分布位置存在显著偏倚，这表明即将到来的种间竞争压力可能会对本地群落的特定类群造成不成比例的冲击。