Data from: Temperature drives abundance fluctuations, but spatial dynamics is constrained by landscape configuration: implications for climate-driven range shift in a butterfly

1. Prediction of species distributions in an altered climate requires
knowledge on how global- and local-scale factors interact to limit their
current distributions. Such knowledge can be gained through studies of
spatial population dynamics at climatic range margins. 2. Here, using a
butterfly (Pyrgus armoricanus) as model species, we first predicted based
on species distribution modelling that its climatically suitable habitats
currently extend north of its realized range. Projecting the model into
scenarios of future climate, we showed that the distribution of
climatically suitable habitats may shift northward by an additional 400 km
in the future. 3. Second, we used a 13-year monitoring data set including
the majority of all habitat patches at the species’ northern range margin
to assess the synergetic impact of temperature fluctuations and spatial
distribution of habitat, microclimatic conditions and habitat quality, on
abundance and colonisation-extinction dynamics. 4. The fluctuation in
abundance between years was almost entirely determined by the variation in
temperature during the species’ larval development. In contrast,
colonisation and extinction dynamics were better explained by patch area,
between-patch connectivity, and host plant density. This suggests that the
response of the species to future climate change may be limited by future
land-use and how its host plants respond to climate change. It is thus
probable that dispersal limitation will prevent P. armoricanus from
reaching its potential future distribution. 5. We argue that models of
range dynamics should consider the factors influencing metapopulation
dynamics, especially at the range edges, and not only broad-scale climate.
It includes factors acting at the scale of habitat patches such as habitat
quality and microclimate, and landscape-scale factors such as the spatial
configuration of potentially suitable patches. Knowledge of population
dynamics under various environmental conditions, and the incorporation of
realistic scenarios of future land-use, appear thus essential to provide
predictions useful for actions mitigating the negative effects of climate
change.