Ruggedness: The Blessing of Bad Geography in Africa

We show that geography, through its impact on history, can have important effects on economic development today. The analysis focuses on the historic interaction between ruggedness and Africa’s slave trades. Although rugged terrain hinders trade and most productive activities, negatively affecting income globally, rugged terrain within Africa afforded protection to those being raided during the slave trades. Since the slave trades retarded subsequent economic development, ruggedness within Africa has also had a historic indirect positive effect on income. Studying all countries worldwide, we estimate the differential effect of ruggedness on income for Africa. We show that the differential effect of ruggedness is statistically significant and economically meaningful, it is found in Africa only, it cannot be explained by other factors like Africa’s unique geographic environment, and it is fully accounted for by the history of the slave trades.本研究表明，地理条件通过其对历史进程的影响，可对当今的经济发展产生重要作用。本分析聚焦于地形崎岖度与非洲奴隶贸易之间的历史互动关系。尽管全球范围内的崎岖地形会阻碍贸易与多数生产活动，进而对收入产生负面影响，但非洲境内的崎岖地形却能为奴隶贸易期间遭劫掠的人群提供庇护。由于奴隶贸易延缓了后续的经济发展进程，非洲境内的地形崎岖度也因此对收入产生了历史性的间接正向影响。本研究通过对全球所有国家开展实证分析，估算了地形崎岖度对非洲与其他地区收入的差异化影响。研究证实，地形崎岖度的差异化影响兼具统计显著性与经济意义，且该影响仅存在于非洲样本中，无法由非洲独特的地理环境等其他因素所解释，其完全可通过奴隶贸易的历史脉络得到说明。