Groceries for Votes: The Electoral Returns of Vote Buying

Despite the prevalence of vote buying in many developing democracies, the evidence of its persuasive effects is very limited. This paper proposes a way to evaluate the electoral impact of vote buying by using data from the 2012 presidential election in Mexico, where one of the parties distributed gift cards in exchange for support on Election Day. I evaluate the effect on citizens’ electoral behavior by considering voters’ proximity to the closest store where they could redeem the cards. The empirical analysis provides evidence of a persuasive effect of the gift cards, whose magnitude was positively related to precincts’ proximity to the store. The analysis also shows the local scope of this vote-buying incident on the electoral outcome, whose effect was focused on a defined group of voters. This study expands on recent theoretical accounts of parties’ targeting strategies and addresses some potential limitations in measuring the electoral consequences of vote buying.尽管买票行为在诸多发展中民主国家中颇为盛行，但有关其说服效应的实证证据却极为匮乏。本文基于墨西哥2012年总统大选的相关数据，提出了一种评估买票行为选举影响的研究路径——该国某政党曾在选举当日发放礼品卡以换取选民支持。本文通过考量选民与其可兑换礼品卡的最近门店之间的距离，评估该行为对选民选举行为的影响。实证分析结果表明，礼品卡确实产生了说服效应，且该效应的强度与选区距离该门店的远近呈正相关关系。分析同时还揭示了此次买票事件对选举结果影响的局部性特征：其效应仅集中于特定群体的选民。本研究拓展了近期关于政党选民瞄准策略的理论阐释，同时弥补了现有研究在衡量买票行为选举后果时存在的若干潜在局限。