Australian crop report: September 2015 No.175

The report is a quarterly report with a consistent and regular assessment of crop prospects for major field crops, forecasts of area, yield and production and a summary of seasonal conditions on a state by state basis. \r\n\r\n\r\n 2015-16 winter crop production \r\n\r\n Favourable seasonal conditions in most cropping regions in Australia during winter have resulted in improved prospects for 2015-16 winter crop production. \r\n\r\n The outlook for spring rainfall is favourable for most cropping regions in Australia. In its latest three-month rainfall outlook (September to November 2015), issued on 27 August 2015, the Bureau of Meteorology forecast that wetter than average spring is likely in most cropping regions in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. Close to average spring rainfall is likely in most cropping regions in Queensland. \r\n\r\n Total winter crop production is forecast to rise by 8 per cent in 2015-16 to 41.4 million tonnes, largely as a result of forecast production increases in Western Australia and New South Wales. Winter crop production is also expected to rise in Queensland and Victoria but remain largely unchanged in South Australia, compared with 2014-15. \r\n\r\n Wheat production is forecast to increase by 7 per cent in 2015-16 to 25.3 million tonnes and barley production is forecast to rise by 8 per cent to 8.6 million tonnes. In contrast, canola production is forecast to fall by 9 per cent to around 3.1 million tonnes. \r\n\r\n 2014-15 summer crop production \r\n\r\n Area planted to summer crops is forecast to increase by 1 per cent in 2015-16 to around 1.1 million hectares. \r\n\r\n Total summer crop production is forecast to fall by 2 per cent in 2015-16 to 3.9 million tonnes, reflecting an assumed fall in average yields from 2014-15. \r\n\r\n Area planted to grain sorghum is forecast to be largely unchanged in 2015-16 at 651 000 hectares. Assuming a return to average yields, production is forecast to fall by 4 per cent to 2 million tonnes.本报告为季度报告，将对主要大田作物（field crops）的生产前景开展持续规范的评估，同时对各区域的种植面积、单产与总产量进行预测，并分州总结当季气候状况。 2015-16年度冬季作物生产 澳大利亚多数作物种植区冬季气候条件利好，推动2015-16年度冬季作物生产前景显著改善。 针对澳大利亚多数种植区的春季降水展望整体向好。澳大利亚气象局（Bureau of Meteorology）于2015年8月27日发布的最新三个月降水展望（2015年9月至11月）显示，新南威尔士州、维多利亚州、南澳大利亚州及西澳大利亚州的多数种植区有望迎来高于常年均值的春季降水；昆士兰州多数种植区的春季降水则预计接近常年均值水平。 2015-16年度冬季作物总产量预计较2014-15年度增长8%，达4140万吨，增幅主要来自西澳大利亚州与新南威尔士州的产量预估提升。相较2014-15年度，昆士兰州与维多利亚州的冬季作物产量预计同样有所增长，而南澳大利亚州的产量则基本保持稳定。 小麦产量预计将增长7%，至2530万吨；大麦产量预计增长8%，至860万吨。与之形成鲜明对比的是，油菜籽产量预计将下滑9%，至约310万吨。 2014-15年度夏季作物生产情况 2015-16年度夏季作物种植面积预计将增长1%，至约110万公顷。 2015-16年度夏季作物总产量预计将下滑2%，至390万吨，这一降幅主要源于较2014-15年度单产均值的假设性回落。 粒用高粱（grain sorghum）的种植面积预计在2015-16年度基本维持不变，为65.1万公顷。若单产恢复至常年均值水平，其产量预计将下滑4%，至200万吨。