Replication Data for: Without Roots: The Political Consequences of Collective Economic Shocks

While an abundance of scholarly work investigates how economic shocks influence the political behavior of affected individuals, we know much less about their collective effects. Exploiting the sudden onset of a plant disease epidemic in Puglia, Italy—where the plant pathogen Xylella fastidiosa devastated centuries-old olive groves—we explore the collective effects of economic shocks. By combining quantitative difference-in-differences analysis of municipal data with a novel case selection strategy for qualitative fieldwork, we document the hardship caused by the outbreak, and estimate a 2.2-percentage-point increase in far-right vote share. We show that pre-existing public service deprivation moderates the shock's political consequences through a community narrative of state neglect. These findings highlight that pre-existing community conditions shape the political consequences of economic shocks, and that plant disease epidemics—which are becoming more prevalent due to climate change—have important political effects.尽管已有大量学术研究探讨经济冲击如何影响受影响个体的政治行为，但我们对其集体效应的认知仍较为匮乏。本研究依托意大利普利亚大区突发的植物病害疫情——当地病原菌木质部难养菌（Xylella fastidiosa）摧毁了数百年树龄的橄榄园——探究经济冲击的集体效应。本研究结合市级数据的定量双重差分法（difference-in-differences）分析与适用于质性田野调查的新型案例选择策略，记录了此次疫情引发的民生困境，并测算极右翼政党得票率上升了2.2个百分点。研究表明，既有公共服务供给不足的状况，会通过社区语境下的国家治理缺位叙事，缓解此次冲击带来的政治后果。本研究结果凸显了既有社区条件对经济冲击政治效应的塑造作用，同时也证实了因气候变化而愈发频发的植物病害疫情，会产生重要的政治影响。