Data for: Price regimes in an energy island: Tacit collusion vs. cost and network explanations

Abstract of associated article: In this paper, we explore the determinants of wholesale electricity prices in an energy island such as Sicily, by estimating regime switching models with fixed and time-varying transition probabilities on daily data in the 2012–2014 period. Explanatory variables used alternatively in the price equation and in the switching equation include power demand, the supply of intermittent renewables, the residual supply index, and a congestion indicator. Four competing hypotheses on the determinants of price regimes are tested (arbitrary market power, cost profile, tacit collusion, congestion) in order to understand why, despite the general trend of declining prices induced by renewables in southern Italy, Sicilian prices stood high. The pattern of estimated coefficients is consistent with a tacit collusion story.关联论文摘要：本文以西西里岛这类能源孤岛（energy island）为研究场景，探究批发电价的决定因素。研究基于2012-2014年的日度数据，构建并估计包含固定转移概率与时变转移概率的状态转换模型（regime switching models）。价格方程与转移方程中交替使用的解释变量包括电力需求、间歇性可再生能源供给、剩余供给指数（residual supply index）以及拥堵指标。本文针对电价状态的决定因素检验了四类竞争性假说——任意市场势力、成本结构、默契合谋、拥堵，以期解释意大利南部地区在可再生能源推动电价普遍下行的背景下，西西里岛电价仍居高不下的成因。估计得到的系数分布与默契合谋的理论图景相符。