Spatial Prioritization of Conifer Management Deciles_Reinhardt_et_al_2024

Abstract File-based data for download: https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/68926f30d4be0275ee63fd19 Sagebrush ecosystems across the western U.S. are in decline due to numerous threats, including expansion of coniferous woodlands and forests. The interagency Sagebrush Conservation Design effort recently quantified sagebrush ecological integrity (SEI) to map remaining core sagebrush areas (relatively intact and functional sagebrush ecosystems) and understand spatial and temporal patterns of change relative to primary threats. This work identified conifer expansion as the second leading cause of decline in sagebrush ecological integrity biome wide. Here, we sought to create a spatial prioritization of conifer management that maximizes return-on-investment to defend and grow core sagebrush areas. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) was used to incorporate a series of biome-level inputs including SEI, invasive annual grass cover and risk, structural connectivity, and conifer cover and expansion vulnerability into a single prioritization based on collaborative expert input. Our analysis identifies priority areas for conifer management across the sagebrush biome, simulates conifer treatments based on those priorities, and estimates potential changes in SEI as a result of targeted treatment. At a broad scale, we found that the highest priority areas for conifer management were largely located east of the Rocky Mountains. This represents a departure from recent landscape-level trends conifer management efforts in sagebrush systems, which were focused primarily pinyon-juniper expansion in the Great Basin. A majority (52%) of the highest priority areas are managed by the Bureau of Land Management, 38 followed by a large proportion (26%) of priority areas located on privately-owned land – particularly in Wyoming and Montana. Targeting simulated conifer treatments using our prioritization resulted in higher within-core targeting percentages (≥93%) than business-as-usual efforts (23.8%), which would result in a four- to eight-fold reduction in the time to treat priority areas within cores. Finally, we demonstrate that these simulated treatments, targeted with our prioritization, have the capacity to improve SEI in and around treatment areas. This work provides an actionable path to “Defend the Core” as outlined by the Sagebrush Conservation Design effort by helping conservationists more efficiently address conifer expansion in and around core sagebrush areas.【摘要】可供下载的文件型数据集：https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/68926f30d4be0275ee63fd19 美国西部的蒿灌丛生态系统（sagebrush ecosystem）正面临多重威胁而持续退化，其中包括针叶林地与针叶林的扩张。跨部门蒿灌丛保护规划（Sagebrush Conservation Design）工作组近期完成了蒿灌丛生态完整性（sagebrush ecological integrity, SEI）的量化工作，以此绘制尚存的核心蒿灌丛区域（即相对完整且功能完备的蒿灌丛生态系统）的空间分布图，并解析了其相较于主要威胁的时空变化模式。此项研究确认，针叶林扩张是全域蒿灌丛生态完整性下降的第二大诱因。 本研究旨在构建针叶林治理空间优先级排序方案，以最大化投资回报率，从而保护并拓展核心蒿灌丛区域。研究采用多准则决策分析（Multi-criteria decision analysis, MCDA），结合协作式专家研讨意见，将一系列生物群区尺度的输入参数整合为单一优先级排序体系，这些参数包括蒿灌丛生态完整性（SEI）、入侵性一年生草本覆盖度与入侵风险、结构连通性，以及针叶林覆盖度与扩张脆弱性。 本研究的分析结果明确了蒿灌丛生物群区内针叶林治理的优先区域，基于上述优先级模拟了针叶林治理措施，并估算了针对性治理措施实施后蒿灌丛生态完整性的潜在变化。在大尺度视角下，本研究发现针叶林治理的最高优先级区域大多位于落基山脉以东。这与近期蒿灌丛系统内针叶林治理工作的景观尺度趋势有所不同——此前的治理工作主要聚焦于大盆地（Great Basin）的矮松-桧木扩张问题。 多数（52%）最高优先级区域由美国土地管理局（Bureau of Land Management）负责管理，另有38%的优先级区域紧随其后，其中26%的优先级区域坐落于私有土地之上——这些区域主要集中在怀俄明州（Wyoming）与蒙大拿州（Montana）。基于本研究的优先级排序开展模拟针叶林治理，其核心区内治理靶向率（≥93%）远高于常规治理模式的23.8%，可将核心区内优先区域的治理耗时缩短4至8倍。最后，本研究证实，基于本研究优先级排序开展的模拟治理措施，能够提升治理区域及其周边的蒿灌丛生态完整性（SEI）。 此项研究为蒿灌丛保护规划（Sagebrush Conservation Design）工作组提出的"Defend the Core"行动提供了可落地的实施路径，助力保护从业者更高效地应对核心蒿灌丛区域内外的针叶林扩张问题。