Long-term effect of forest harvesting on boreal species assemblages under climate change

Logging is the main human disturbance impacting biodiversity in forest ecosystems. However, the impact of forest harvesting on biodiversity is modulated by abiotic conditions through complex relationships that remain poorly documented. Therefore, the interplay between forest management and climate change can no longer be ignored. Our aim was to study the expected long-term variations in the assemblage of bird and beetle communities following modifications in forest management under different climate change scenarios. We developed species distribution models to predict the occurrence of 88 species of birds and beetles in eastern Canadian boreal forests over the next century. We simulated three climate scenarios (baseline, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) under which we varied the level of harvesting. Â We also analyzed the regional assemblage dissimilarity by decomposing it into balanced variations in species occupancy and occupancy gradient. We predict that forest harvesting will alter the diversity ..., ,森林采伐是影响森林生态系统生物多样性的主要人为干扰因素。然而，森林采伐对生物多样性的影响会通过复杂关联受非生物条件调控，此类关联的相关记载仍较为匮乏。因此，森林管理与气候变化之间的交互作用已不容忽视。本研究旨在探究不同气候变化情景下，森林管理模式调整后鸟类与甲虫群落组合的预期长期变化。我们构建了物种分布模型（Species Distribution Models），以预测未来一个世纪内加拿大东部北方森林中88种鸟类与甲虫的发生情况。 我们模拟了三种气候变化情景（基准情景、RCP4.5与RCP8.5），并在各情景中调整采伐强度。我们还通过将区域群落组成相异度分解为物种占据率的均衡变化与占据梯度，对其进行了分析。我们预测森林采伐将会改变生物多样性……