Fertilizer Use in Kenya

We model farmers as facing small fixed costs of purchasing fertilizer and assume some are stochastically present biased and not fully sophisticated about this bias. Such farmers may procrastinate, postponing fertilizer purchases until later periods, when they may be too impatient to purchase fertilizer. Consistent with the model, many farmers in Western Kenya fail to take advantage of apparently profitable fertilizer investments, but they do invest in response to small, time-limited discounts on the cost of acquiring fertilizer (free delivery) just after harvest. Calibration suggests that this policy can yield higher welfare than either laissez-faire policies or heavy subsidies.本研究将农户建模为面临化肥采购的小额固定成本，并假定部分农户存在随机现时偏向型偏好，且未能充分认知自身的这一偏好偏差。此类农户可能出现拖延行为，将化肥采购事宜推迟至后续时段，而此时他们往往会因过于缺乏耐心而放弃采购化肥。与该模型的预测相符，肯尼亚西部的诸多农户未能利用看似有利可图的化肥投资机会，但他们会在收获后不久，针对化肥采购成本（含免费配送服务）推出的小额限时折扣做出响应，进而进行化肥采购。校准分析结果表明，相较于自由放任政策或高额补贴政策，此类政策能够带来更高的社会福利。