Genomic signals of selection predict climate-driven population declines in a migratory bird

The ongoing loss of biodiversity caused by rapid climatic shifts requires accurate models for predicting species’ responses. Despite evidence that evolutionary adaptation could mitigate climate change impacts, evolution is rarely integrated into predictive models. Integrating population genomics and environmental data, we identified genomic variation associated with climate across the breeding range of the migratory songbird, yellow warbler (Setophaga petechia). Populations requiring the greatest shifts in allele frequencies to keep pace with future climate change have experienced the largest population declines, suggesting that failure to adapt may have already negatively affected populations. Broadly, our study suggests that the integration of genomic adaptation can increase the accuracy of future species distribution models and ultimately guide more effective mitigation efforts.快速气候变化引发的生物多样性持续丧失，亟需能够精准预测物种应对气候变化响应的模型。尽管已有研究证实进化适应可缓解气候变化的影响，但进化因素极少被纳入预测模型之中。本研究通过整合种群基因组学与环境数据，在迁徙鸣禽黄林莺（Setophaga petechia）的整个繁殖分布区内，鉴定出与气候相关的基因组变异。那些为跟上未来气候变化节奏、需最大幅度改变等位基因频率的种群，其种群数量下降幅度也最大，这表明适应失败或已对种群产生了负面影响。总体而言，本研究显示，将基因组适应相关信息纳入考量，可提升未来物种分布模型的预测精度，并最终助力制定更有效的气候减缓行动。