A data-driven Labels for solar flare predictions

Solar flare prediction is a central problem in space weather forecasting. Existing solar flare prediction tools are mainly dependent on the GOES classification system, and models commonly use a proxy of maximum (peak) X-ray flux measurement over a particular prediction window to label instances. However, the background X-ray flux dramatically fluctuates over a solar cycle and often misleads both flare detection and flare prediction models during solar minimum, leading to an increase in false alarms. Our aim is to enhance the accuracy of flare prediction methods by introducing novel labeling regimes that integrate relative increases and cumulative measurements over prediction windows.