Distributions assumed for each parameter.

*These parameters accounted for the first-order uncertainties (individual level), and others the second-order uncertainties (population level). †Time to failure due to short-run and long-run causes were distinguished. We assumed separate Weibull distributions for each cause, and modelled the time to revision as the normalized sum of these two. The Weibull parameters are provided in Text S1 Section 1.9. ‡The values are provided in Text S1 Section 1.8. §The parameters of Gamma distributions consist of Alpha = unit cost, Beta = 1. **Triangular distribution was used to model the uncertainty of unit costs (±20%), and Gamma distribution for the time spent in hospital.