Projected vegetation redistribution (MaxClass): Australia - 9sec gridded projection to 2050, maximum probability class generalised pre-clearing patterns of Major Vegetation Sub-groups using kernel regression with GDM (VAS_v5_r11) (CMIP5: CanESM2 RCP 8.5)

This collection contains a 9-second gridded dataset (ESRI binary float format in GDA94) showing the generalised projected future (2050-centred) potential pre-clearing vegetation patterns of 77 Major Vegetation Sub-groups (MVS classes) derived from the maximum of their respective predicted probabilities for each grid cell (V_MXC_85Can50 - MaxClass). Two additional datasets show the maximum probability in each gird cell that was used to assign that class (V_MXP_85Can50 - MaxProb), and the number of classes with non-zero probabilities with potential to represent their type in each grid cell (V_NMC_85Can50 - NumClasses). The predicted probabilities for each class were derived based on their distribution patterns and correlation with baseline ecological environments (c.1990 climates, substrate and landform). The pre-clearing vegetation patterns and classification derive from version 4.1 of “Australia - Estimated Pre1750 Major Vegetation Groups - NVIS Version 4.1 (Albers 100m analysis product)” developed by the Australian Government Department of the Environment and collaborating State agencies. A kernel regression was used with c.155,000 locations of training classes for the 77 MVS classes attributed with 17 GDM-scaled environmental predictors for Vascular Plants representing baseline ecological environments. These details are provided with the data package “Potential vegetation redistribution: Australia - 9second gridded projection to 2050, pre-clearing extents of 77 Major Vegetation Sub-groups using kernel regression with GDM-scaled environments for Vascular Plants (GDM: VAS_v5_r11; CMIP5: CanESM2 RCP 8.5)”. The GDM-scaled environmental predictors are available with the “VAS_v5_r11” data package. This dataset projects the generalised potential pre-clearing vegetation patterns based on 2050-centred (30 year average) future climates derived from the CanESM2 global climate model for the emission scenario defined by a representative concentration pathway of 8.5.

The accuracy of projections is limited by the quality of the vegetation mapping used to train the models and the accuracy of environmental variables delimiting substrate boundaries and disturbance regimes. Uncertainty or errors in the underlying vegetation map and environmental data will be reproduced by the models. Furthermore, variables describing the relationship between extreme climatic events and ecological disturbance regimes, that have significant structural influences on vegetation, are not directly included in these models.

The data are provided as 9-second (approximately 250m), ESRI binary float grid format in GDA94. This dataset series and its use is described in the AdaptNRM Guide “Helping biodiversity adapt to climate change: a community-level modelling approach”, available online at: www.adaptnrm.org