Model simulation output and satellite data for 2026 Santer et al. paper: "Misrepresentation of Human Fingerprint in DOE Report"

Model simulation output and satellite data for 2026 Santer et al. paper: "Misrepresentation of Human Fingerprint in DOE Report" Authors/Creators Santer, Benjamin (Contact person)1 Show affiliations Description The model and observational datasets analyzed in the 2026 Santer et al. paper entitled "Misrepresentation of Human Climate Fingerprint in DOE Report" are provided here. Observational data We compare simulated and observed atmospheric temperature changes over six different broad atmospheric layers. The six layers are those sampled by the primary satellite instruments used to measure atmospheric temperatures: the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) (Zou & Qian, 2016) and the Microwave Sounding Unit and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU/AMSU). SSU supplies mid- to upper stratospheric temperatures (SSU1, SSU2, and SSU3), while MSU/AMSU provides lower stratospheric temperature (TLS), total tropospheric temperature (TTT) and lower tropospheric temperature (TLT) (Mears & Wentz, 2016; Spencer et al., 2017; Zou et al., 2023). Stratospheric Sounding Unit channel 3 (SSU3; approximate altitude range 40-50 km) Stratospheric Sounding Unit channel 2 (SSU2; approximate altitude range 35-40 km) Stratospheric Sounding Unit channel 1 (SSU1; approximate altitude range 25-35 km) Microwave Sounding Unit/Advanced MSU temperature of the lower stratosphere (MSU/AMSU TLS; approximate altitude range 15-20 km) Microwave Sounding Unit/Advanced MSU temperature of the troposphere (MSU/AMSU TTT; approximate altitude range surface-13 km) Microwave Sounding Unit/Advanced MSU temperature of the lower troposphere (MSU/AMSU TLT; approximate altitude surface-8 km) We use the most recent versions of the observed MSU/AMSU and SSU/AMSU-A data. These data are publicly available from three different research groups: Remote Sensing Systems in Santa Rosa, California (RSS), the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH), and the NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR). RSS version 4.0 for TLS, TTT, and TLT. UAH version 6.1 for TLS, TTT, and TLT. STAR version 5.0 for TLS, TTT, and TLT. STAR version 3.0 for SSU1, SSU2, and SSU3. Model data We analyze synthetic SSU3, SSU2, SSU1, TLS, TTT, and TLT data from simulations performed under phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) (Eyring et al., 2016). “Synthetic” denotes the calculation of a vertically weighted average of atmospheric temperature in order to facilitate the comparison of simulations and satellite SSU or MSU data. The synthetic SSU and MSU temperatures are from three different types of numerical experiment: Simulations with estimated historical changes in natural and anthropopogenic external forcings, which typically commence from January 1850 and end in December 2014. Scenario runs with post-2014 changes in anthropogenic external forcings that are specified according to a Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP). The SSP used here is referred to as SSP5-8.5 (or as SSP5) because it reaches radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2 by 2100. We adopt the SSP5 nomenclature here (Riahi et al., 2017). Preindustrial control integrations with no year-to-year changes in external forcings. These runs are used to provide estimates of the “noise” of natural internal variability Each historical simulation was spliced together with a companion SSP5 run initiated from the end of the historical run. This extension of the historical run allows us to compare simulated and observed atmospheric temperatures over the full 40-year period from 1986 to 2025. These are referred to as extended historical runs. Naming conventions "piControl": Denotes synthetic SSU and MSU/AMSU data from CMIP6 pre-industrial control runs. "hst_ssp585" or "historical_extended": Denotes synthetic SSU and MSU/AMSU data from CMIP6 extended historical simulations. "tf2": Denotes TTT data. tf2 indicates that tropospheric temperatures have been adjusted for the effects of lower stratospheric cooling. "r1", "r2", "r3", etc.: Identifies realization number for CMIP6 extended historical simulations. "GLB2": Denotes spatial average over 82.5N to 82.5S, the domain with maximum common latitudinal coverage in the RSS, UAH, and STAR satellite data (for SSU1, SSU2, SSU3, TLS, and TTT). "GLB2": Denotes spatial average over 82.5N to 70S, the domain with maximum common latitudinal coverage in the RSS, UAH, and STAR TLT data. "TLO2": Denotes spatial average over 20N to 20S. Further details of all model and observational temperature data sets are provided in the Supporting Information of the 2026 Santer et al. PNAS paper entitled "Misrepresentation of Human Climate Fingerprint in DOE Report". Figure_01_historical_extended_CMIP6_09models_ssu1_GLB2_1986-2025.tar: This is the .tar file containing global-mean SSU1 time series for 32 CMIP6 extended historical runs performed with 9 CMIP6 models. Analysis period is 1986 to 2025. Figure_01_historical_extended_CMIP6_09models_ssu2_GLB2_1986-2025.tar: This is the .tar file containing global-mean SSU2 time series for 32 CMIP6 extended historical runs performed with 9 CMIP6 models. Analysis period is 1986 to 2025. Figure_01_historical_extended_CMIP6_09models_ssu3_GLB2_1986-2025.tar: This is the .tar file containing global-mean SSU3 time series for 32 CMIP6 extended historical runs performed with 9 CMIP6 models. Analysis period is 1986 to 2025. Figure_01_historical_extended_CMIP6_09models_tls_GLB2_1986-2025.tar: This is the .tar file containing global-mean TLS time series for 32 CMIP6 extended historical runs performed with 9 CMIP6 models. Analysis period is 1986 to 2025. Figure_01_historical_extended_CMIP6_09models_tf2_GLB2_1986-2025.tar: This is the .tar file containing global-mean TTT time series for 32 CMIP6 extended historical runs performed with 9 CMIP6 models. Analysis period is 1986 to 2025. Figure_01_historical_extended_CMIP6_09models_tlt_GLB3_1986-2025.tar: This is the .tar file containing global-mean TLT time series for 32 CMIP6 extended historical runs performed with 9 CMIP6 models. Analysis period is 1986 to 2025. Figure_01_observations_six_layers_Global_1986-2025.tar: This is the .tar file containing global-mean observational time series for the six atmospheric layers shown in Figure 1 (SSU3, SSU2, SSU1, TLS, TTT, and TLT). Analysis period is 1986 to 2025. Figure_02_historical_extended_CMIP6_21models_tls_TLO2_2000-2025.tar: This is the .tar file containing tropical-average TLS time series for 161 extended historical runs performed with 21 CMIP6 models. Analysis period is 2000 to 2025. Figure_02_observations_tls_Tropics_2000-2025.tar: This is the .tar file containing tropical-average observational TLS time series. Analysis period is 2000 to 2025. Figure_03_historical_extended_CMIP6_09models_ssu1_TLO2_2000-2025.tar: This is the .tar file containing tropical-average SSU1 time series for 32 CMIP6 extended historical runs performed with 9 CMIP6 models. Analysis period is 2000 to 2025. Figure_03_historical_extended_CMIP6_09models_ssu2_TLO2_2000-2025.tar: This is the .tar file containing tropical-average SSU2 time series for 32 CMIP6 extended historical runs performed with 9 CMIP6 models. Analysis period is 2000 to 2025. Figure_03_historical_extended_CMIP6_09models_ssu3_TLO2_2000-2025.tar: This is the .tar file containing tropical-average SSU3 time series for 32 CMIP6 extended historical runs performed with 9 CMIP6 models. Analysis period is 2000 to 2025. Figure_03_historical_extended_CMIP6_09models_tls_TLO2_2000-2025.tar: This is the .tar file containing tropical-average TLS time series for 32 CMIP6 extended historical runs performed with 9 CMIP6 models. Analysis period is 2000 to 2025. Figure_03_historical_extended_CMIP6_09models_tf2_TLO2_2000-2025.tar: This is the .tar file containing tropical-average TTT time series for 32 CMIP6 extended historical runs performed with 9 CMIP6 models. Analysis period is 2000 to 2025. Figure_03_historical_extended_CMIP6_09models_tlt_TLO2_2000-2025.tar: This is the .tar file containing tropical-average TLT time series for 32 CMIP6 extended historical runs performed with 9 CMIP6 models. Analysis period is 2000 to 2025. Figure_03_piControl_CMIP6_09models_ssu1_TLO2_0000_0000.tar: This is the .tar file containing tropical-average SSU1 time series for 9 CMIP6 preindustrial control runs. Analysis period is entire length of control run. Figure_03_piControl_CMIP6_09models_ssu2_TLO2_0000_0000.tar: This is the .tar file containing tropical-average SSU2 time series for 9 CMIP6 preindustrial control runs. Analysis period is entire length of control run. Figure_03_piControl_CMIP6_09models_ssu3_TLO2_0000_0000.tar: This is the .tar file containing tropical-average SSU3 time series for 9 CMIP6 preindustrial control runs. Analysis period is entire length of control run. Figure_03_piControl_CMIP6_09models_tls_TLO2_0000_0000.tar: This is the .tar file containing tropical-average TLS time series for 9 CMIP6 preindustrial control runs. Analysis period is entire length of control run. Figure_03_piControl_CMIP6_09models_tf2_TLO2_0000_0000.tar: This is the .tar file containing tropical-average TTT time series for 9 CMIP6 preindustrial control runs. Analysis period is entire length of control run. Figure_03_piControl_CMIP6_09models_tlt_TLO2_0000_0000.tar: This is the .tar file containing tropical-average TLT time series for 9 CMIP6 preindustrial control runs. Analysis period is entire length of control run. Figure_03_observations_Tropics_2000-2025.tar: This is the .tar file containing tropical-average observational time series for the six atmospheric layers shown in Figure 3 (SSU3, SSU2, SSU1, TLS, TTT, and TLT). Analysis period is 2000 to 2025.