Ecological vs. climate uncertainty in future marine ecosystems: lessons learned from krill in a major upwelling region

Krill is a central organism in the food web of many marine ecosystems and eastern boundary current upwelling regions specifically. Here, a superensemble of climate and ecological models is used to determine drivers of future change, variability, and uncertainty in krill abundance for the California Current. While krill is projected to slowly decrease throughout the 21st century, the long-term trend consistently exceeds natural variability only under extreme warming. Similarly, unprecedented low krill years are expected to progressively increase, but their frequency of occurrence will depend on background abundances tied to low-frequency climate variability. The relative contributions of warming rate and model formulation to projected uncertainty are comparable and reflect latitudinal changes in the magnitude of climate forcing and availability of empirical data to parameterize krill models, thereby warranting a more pragmatic incorporation of anthropogenic and ecological uncertainty sou..., , # Ecological vs. climate uncertainty in future marine ecosystems: lessons learned from krill in a major upwelling region

Dataset DOI: [10.5061/dryad.3xsj3txtp](10.5061/dryad.3xsj3txtp)

## Description of the data and file structure

This dataset is a subset of an ensemble of downscaled regional climate projections for krill in the central California Current upwelling system for 2000-2100. The ensemble consists of 9 members that include 3 rates of warming (Lo8.5, Av8.5, and Hi8.5) representative of the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario and 3 functionally different krill model formulations (NPD, an Eulerian nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton model; GA, a Lagrangian growth-advection nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton model; and SDM, a statistical distribution model). For all projections, the underlying physical model is an implementation of the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS; [www.myroms.org](http://www.myroms.org)) at 1/10° (~10 km) resolution.

### Files and variables

#### File: kr...,