Ecological vs. climate uncertainty in future marine ecosystems: lessons learned from krill in a major upwelling region

Krill is a central organism in the food web of many marine ecosystems and eastern boundary current upwelling regions specifically. Here, a superensemble of climate and ecological models is used to determine drivers of future change, variability, and uncertainty in krill abundance for the California Current. While krill is projected to slowly decrease throughout the 21st century, the long-term trend consistently exceeds natural variability only under extreme warming. Similarly, unprecedented low krill years are expected to progressively increase, but their frequency of occurrence will depend on background abundances tied to low-frequency climate variability. The relative contributions of warming rate and model formulation to projected uncertainty are comparable and reflect latitudinal changes in the magnitude of climate forcing and availability of empirical data to parameterize krill models, thereby warranting a more pragmatic incorporation of anthropogenic and ecological uncertainty sou..., , # Ecological vs. climate uncertainty in future marine ecosystems: lessons learned from krill in a major upwelling region Dataset DOI: [10.5061/dryad.3xsj3txtp](10.5061/dryad.3xsj3txtp) ## Description of the data and file structure This dataset is a subset of an ensemble of downscaled regional climate projections for krill in the central California Current upwelling system for 2000-2100. The ensemble consists of 9 members that include 3 rates of warming (Lo8.5, Av8.5, and Hi8.5) representative of the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario and 3 functionally different krill model formulations (NPD, an Eulerian nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton model; GA, a Lagrangian growth-advection nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton model; and SDM, a statistical distribution model). For all projections, the underlying physical model is an implementation of the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS; [www.myroms.org](http://www.myroms.org)) at 1/10° (~10 km) resolution. ### Files and variables #### File: kr...,磷虾是众多海洋食物网的核心物种，尤其在东边界流上升流区域发挥着关键作用。本研究采用气候与生态模型超级集合，解析加州流系统中磷虾丰度未来变化、变异性与不确定性的驱动因子。研究表明，整个21世纪磷虾种群预计将缓慢衰减，但仅在极端增暖情景下，长期趋势才会显著超出自然变率。同样，史无前例的低丰度磷虾年份预计会逐渐增多，但其发生频率将取决于与低频气候变率相关的背景种群丰度。增暖速率与模型结构对预估不确定性的相对贡献相当，这反映了气候强迫强度的纬度变化，以及用于参数化磷虾模型的实证数据可得性，因此亟需更务实地整合人为与生态不确定性来源…… # 未来海洋生态系统的生态与气候不确定性：以主要上升流区域磷虾为例 数据集DOI：[10.5061/dryad.3xsj3txtp] ## 数据与文件结构说明 本数据集为2000-2100年加州中部上升流系统磷虾降尺度区域气候预测集合的子集。该集合包含9个成员：其中3组增暖速率情景（Lo8.5、Av8.5与Hi8.5）代表典型浓度路径8.5（RCP8.5）高排放情景；另外3种为功能各异的磷虾模型结构，分别为欧拉型营养盐-浮游植物-浮游动物模型（NPD）、拉格朗日生长-平流营养盐-浮游植物-浮游动物模型（GA）以及统计分布模型（SDM）。所有预测的基础物理模型均为区域海洋建模系统（Regional Ocean Modelling System, ROMS；http://www.myroms.org）的实现版本，分辨率为1/10°（约10千米）。 ### 文件与变量 #### 文件：kr...,