A secure future? Human urban and agricultural land use benefits a flightless island-endemic rail despite climate change

Identifying environmental characteristics that limit species’ distributions is important for contemporary conservation and inferring responses to future environmental change.  The Tasmanian native hen is an island-endemic flightless rail and a survivor of a prehistoric extirpation event. Little is known about the regional-scale environmental characteristics influencing the distribution of native hens, or how their future distribution might be impacted by environmental shifts (e.g., climate change). Using a combination of local fieldwork and species distribution modelling, we assess environmental factors shaping the contemporary distribution of the native hen, and project future distribution changes under predicted climate change. We find 37.2% of Tasmania is currently suitable for the native hens, owing to low summer precipitation, low elevation, human-modified vegetation, and urban areas. Moreover, in unsuitable regions, urban areas can create ‘oases’ of habitat, able to support popula..., Local-scale factors measurements (fieldwork)
We selected geographically distant populations presenting different rainfall profiles during the late-autumn to spring period, April-November 2019, as rainfall is an important factor for native hens’ survival and reproduction (Ridpath, 1972a; Lévêque, 2022): ‘East’ (wukaluwikiwayna/Maria Island National park; 42°34'51\"S 148°03'56\"E), ‘North’ (Narawntapu National park; 41°08'53\"S 146°36'52\"E), and ‘West’ (adjacent to the town of Zeehan [712 inhabitants];  41°53'03\"S 145°19'56\"E). The period April-November corresponds to the six-month period preceding the middle point of the breeding season, generally used for native hens’ surveys (Goldizen et al., 1998; Lévêque, 2022).
All three populations were surveyed between the 10th and the 22nd of November 2019 (late spring, in the middle point of the breeding season) to determine population structure (total number of groups, group composition [number of adults and young], and breeding activity). Each po..., R program; spreadsheet