Land Cover Vulnerability to Change 2050 - Global

Use this global model layer when performing analysis across continents. This layer displays predictions globally of relative vulnerability to modification by humans by the year 2050. ESA CCI land cover maps from the years 2010 and 2018 were used to create this prediction. Variable mapped: Vulnerability of land cover to anthropogenic change by 2050. Data Projection: Cylindrical Equal Area Mosaic Projection: Cylindrical Equal Area Extent: Global Cell Size: 300m Source Type: Thematic Visible Scale: 1:50,000 and smaller Source: Clark University Publication date: April 2021 Analysis: Analysis-Optimized What you can do with this layer? This layer can be used in analysis, to estimate and compare vulnerability to land cover change globally due to expansion of human activity, by 2050. This layer is useful in ecological planning, helping to prioritize areas for conservation. Analysis In order to leverage the optimization for analysis, the capability must be enabled by your ArcGIS organization administrator. More information on enabling this feature can be found in the ‘Regional data hosting’ section of this help doc. Optimized for analysis means this layer does not have size constraints for analysis and it is recommended for multisource analysis with other layers optimized for analysis. See the ArcGIS Living Atlas: Analysis-Optimized Imagery Layers Group for a complete list of imagery layers optimized for analysis. Links to the six Clark University land cover 2050 layers in ArcGIS Living Atlas of the World: There are three scales (country, regional, and global) for the land cover and vulnerability models. They’re all slightly different since the country model can be more fine-tuned to the drivers in that particular area. Regional (continental) and global have more spatially consistent model weights. Which should you use? If you’re analyzing one country or want to make accurate comparisons between proximate countries, use the country level. If mapping larger patterns or vastly separated countries, use the global or regional extent (depending on your area of interest). Land Cover 2050 - Global Land Cover 2050 - Regional Land Cover 2050 - Country Land Cover Vulnerability to Change 2050 Global Land Cover Vulnerability to Change 2050 Regional Land Cover Vulnerability to Change 2050 Country What these layers model (and what they don’t model) The model focuses on human-based land cover changes and projects the extent of these changes to the year 2050. It seeks to find where agricultural and urban land cover will cover the planet in that year, and what areas are most vulnerable to change due to the expansion of the human footprint. It does not predict changes to other land cover types such as forests or other natural vegetation during that time period unless it is replaced by agriculture or urban land cover. It also doesn’t predict sea level rise unless the model detected a pattern in changes in bodies of water between 2010 and 2018. A few 300m pixels might have changed due to sea level rise during that timeframe, but not many. The model predicts land cover changes based upon patterns it found in the period 2010-2018. But it cannot predict future land use. This is partly because current land use is not necessarily a model input. In this model, land set aside as a result of political decisions, for example military bases or nature reserves, may be found to be filled in with urban or agricultural areas in 2050. This is because the model is blind to the political decisions that affect land use. Quantitative Variables used to create Models Biomass Crop Suitability Distance to Airports Distance to Cropland 2010 Distance to Primary Roads Distance to Railroads Distance to Secondary Roads Distance to Settled Areas Distance to Urban 2010 Elevation GDP Human Influence Index Population Density Precipitation Regions Slope Temperature Qualitative Variables used to create Models Biomes Ecoregions Irrigated Crops Protected Areas Continent Country Rainfed Crops Soil Classification Soil Depth Soil Drainage Soil pH Soil Texture