Future Life-Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios for the Austrian Building Stock: A Systematic Approach

Building stock modeling
can be used to identify trajectories
that
do not exceed the remaining carbon budget and support science-based
pathways. A systematic approach is used from the field of prospective
life-cycle assessment, which is based on systems thinking, to develop
scenarios for the Austrian building stock that consider life-cycle
greenhouse gas emissions. The influential parameters of the model
are identified; their interactions are classified; quantitative future
assumptions are adopted; and five scenario narratives are created.
A maximum emission reduction of 90% from 2023 to 2050 is revealed.
In comparison, leaving current policies in place would lead to a trajectory
that reduces emissions by only 66%. Three additional scenarios achieve
emission reductions between 84 and 86% by 2050, which may be compatible
with the 2 °C carbon budget using an equal-per-capita approach.
These scenarios represent different societal choices based on ambitious
sufficiency (e.g., behavioral change), technological measures (e.g.,
a change in the industry), or both, with less effort from all actors.
To ensure that Austria contributes to staying within the remaining
carbon budget, policy makers are urged to systematically and quickly
incorporate sufficiency into their policies and enable the necessary
investments in carbon dioxide removal technologies.