Replication Data for: The psychology of state repression: Fear and dissent decisions in Zimbabwe

Abstract: Many authoritarian regimes use frightening acts of repression to suppress dissent. Theory from psychology suggests that emotions should affect how citizens perceive and process information about repression risk, and ultimately whether or not they dissent. I test the effects of emotions on dissent in autocracy by running a lab-in-the-field experiment with 671 opposition supporters in Zimbabwe that randomly assigns some participants to an exercise that induces a mild state of fear, while others complete a neutral placebo. The fear treatment significantly reduces hypothetical and behavioral measures of dissent by substantively large amounts. It also increases pessimism about parameters that enter into the dissent decision, as well as risk aversion. These results show that emotions interact in important ways with strategic considerations. Fear may be a powerful component of how unpopular autocrats exclude large portions of their populations from mobilizing for regime change.摘要：诸多威权政权常借助威慑性镇压行动压制异见发声。心理学领域的理论指出，情绪会影响公民对镇压风险相关信息的感知与加工，并最终决定其是否表达异见。本文以津巴布韦671名反对派支持者为研究样本，开展田野实验室实验（lab-in-the-field experiment），通过随机分配机制，将部分参与者分配至可诱发轻度恐惧情绪的任务组，其余参与者则完成中性安慰剂任务，以此检验威权语境下情绪对异见行为的影响。实验结果显示，恐惧干预可显著降低异见行为的假设性测量指标与实际行为指标，且降幅具备显著的实践意义。同时，该干预还会提升参与者对异见决策相关参数的悲观预期，以及风险厌恶（risk aversion）水平。上述研究结果证实，情绪会与战略考量产生重要的交互作用。恐惧情绪或许是不受欢迎的威权统治者将大量民众排除在政权更迭动员之外的关键影响因素之一。