Avian seed dispersal may be insufficient for plants to track future temperature change on tropical mountains

Abstract

Aim: Climate change causes species’ range shifts globally. Terrestrial plant species often lag behind temperature shifts, and it is unclear to what extent animal-dispersed plants can track climate change. Here, we estimate the ability of bird-dispersed plant species to track future temperature change on a tropical mountain.

Location: Tropical elevational gradient (500–3500 m a.s.l.) in the Manú biosphere reserve, Peru

Time period: 1960–1990 to 2061–2080

Taxa: Fleshy-fruited plants, avian frugivores

Methods: Using simulations based on the functional traits of avian frugivores and fruiting plants, we quantified the number of long-distance dispersal (LDD) events that woody plant species would require to track projected temperature shifts on a tropical mountain by the year 2070 under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5). We applied this approach to 343 bird-dispersed woody plant species.

Results: Our simulations reveal that bird-dispe...