Análise de Concorrência no Mercado Mundial de Café Verde

Although Brazil is still the world’s leading exporter of green coffee, current studies demonstrate that Brazil has been losing power in the market, because the existing competition (rivalry and possibility to enter) imposed by countries, such as Colombia and Vietnam, is strong enough to make this market very competitive. Therefore, this paper assesses the competitive profile in the world market for green coffee using econometric tools usually employed in antitrust analysis. To evaluate the consumer behavior, price elasticity of the world demand for green coffee was estimated, by coffee type, using the Multinomial Logit Demand model. To evaluate the supply behavior, tests for market share instability were conducted, in terms of quantity, by using cointegration in panel data. Results reveal an increased competition for the Brazilian coffee from the point of view of the demand, with the maintenance of market shares over time.