Replication Data for: The Racial Politics of Mass Incarceration

Many argue that America's punitive turn was the result of racial backlash to the Civil Rights movement. Yet some have noted support among black people for the policies attributed to this backlash, citing the influence of rising crime on black voters and politicians. In this paper we gather new evidence and examine what it implies. Public opinion data show that the black and not just white public became more punitive after the 1960s. Voting data from the House show that most black politicians voted punitively at the height of concern about crime. And an analysis of federally-mandated redistricting suggests that, in the early 1990s, black political representation had a punitive impact at the state level. Together, our evidence suggests that crime had a profound effect on black politics. It also casts some doubt on the conventional view of the origins of mass incarceration.诸多学者认为，美国刑事政策的强硬转向，源于民众对民权运动的种族性反弹。但也有学者指出，黑人群体中亦存在对这类被归因于该种族反弹的政策的支持态度，并将其归结为犯罪率攀升对黑人选民与政客的影响。本文通过收集全新的实证证据，探讨该议题的深层意涵。民意调查数据显示，不仅白人公众，黑人公众在20世纪60年代后也愈发倾向于从严治罪的立场。众议院投票数据表明，在公众对犯罪问题的担忧达到顶峰之际，大多数黑人政客也投下了支持从严治罪的选票。针对联邦强制推行的选区重划分析显示，20世纪90年代初，黑人政治代表在州层面产生了从严治罪的政策影响。综合以上实证证据，本文认为犯罪问题对黑人政治产生了深远影响；同时，本研究也对大规模监禁制度起源的主流观点提出了一定质疑。