The Role of Risk Attitude in the Adoption of Smart Alternate Irrigation and Drainage (SAID) Technology

This study investigates the adoption of a sensor‑enhanced irrigation technology—Smart Alternate Irrigation and Drainage (SAID)—among rice farmers in Southeast Nigeria through the lens of risk attitudes and information support. We surveyed 300 irrigated rice farmers, capturing socio‑economic variables, awareness of SAID, and a Risk Level Index (RLI) derived from hypothetical decision-making scenarios. A randomized subset of 70 farmers received detailed information about SAID’s benefits and operation, enabling rigorous evaluation of the impact of targeted awareness. A Random Forest model, validated via 10‑fold cross‑validation, achieved an accuracy of 76% and an AUC‑ROC of 0.73 in predicting adoption behavior. Results demonstrate that awareness significantly elevates adoption likelihood, while high risk aversion dampens it—underscoring the critical role of psychological factors in sustainable technology uptake. Income, education, extension access, and existing irrigation practices also emerged as strong predictors. These findings highlight the importance of integrated interventions that combine behavioral insights with technical and economic support. For policymakers, AgriTech developers, and extension agents, this means designing adoption strategies that not only reduce financial barriers but also actively engage farmers’ perceptions of risk through tailored outreach, demonstration trials, and risk‑mitigation mechanisms.