Data from: The ecology of wildlife disease surveillance: demographic and prevalence fluctuations undermine surveillance

1. Wildlife disease surveillance is the first line of defence against infectious disease. Fluctuations in host populations and disease prevalence are a known feature of wildlife disease systems. However, the impact of such heterogeneities on the performance of surveillance is currently poorly understood. 2. We present the first systematic exploration of the effects of fluctuations prevalence and host population size on the efficacy of wildlife disease surveillance systems. In this study efficacy is measured in terms of ability to estimate long term prevalence and detect disease risk. 3. Our results suggest that for many wildlife disease systems fluctuations in population size and disease lead to bias in surveillance-based estimates of prevalence and over-confidence in assessments of both the precision of prevalence estimates and the power to detect disease. 4. Neglecting such ecological effects may lead to poorly designed surveillance and ultimately to incorrect assessments of the risks posed by disease in wildlife. This will be most problematic in systems where prevalence fluctuations are large and disease fade-outs occur. Such fluctuations are determined by the interaction of demography and disease dynamics and although particularly likely in highly fluctuating populations typical of fecund short lived hosts, can’t be ruled out in more stable populations of longer lived hosts. 5. Synthesis and Applications: Fluctuations in population size and disease prevalence should be considered in the design and implementation of wildlife disease surveillance and the framework presented here provides a template for conducting suitable power calculations. Ultimately understanding the impact of fluctuations in demographic and epidemiological processes will enable improvements to wildlife disease surveillance systems leading to better characterization of, and protection against endemic, emerging and re-emerging disease threats.10-Mar-20161. 野生动物疾病监测（Wildlife disease surveillance）是抵御传染病（infectious disease）的第一道防线。宿主种群（host populations）波动与疾病流行率（disease prevalence）变化是野生动物疾病系统的公认特征，但目前学界对这类异质性（heterogeneities）对监测效能的影响仍缺乏深入认知。 2. 本研究首次系统性探究了疾病流行率波动与宿主种群规模变化对野生动物疾病监测系统效能的影响。本研究中，监测效能以长期流行率估算能力与疾病风险检测能力为衡量标准。 3. 研究结果表明，在多数野生动物疾病系统中，种群规模与疾病的波动会导致基于监测的流行率估算出现偏差，同时会使研究者对流行率估算的精度以及疾病检测检验效能的评估过于乐观。 4. 若忽视这类生态学效应，可能会导致监测方案设计失当，最终对野生动物所面临的疾病风险做出错误评估。这一问题在流行率波动幅度较大且出现疾病消亡（disease fade-outs）的系统中尤为突出。这类波动由种群动态（demography）与疾病动态的相互作用所决定，尽管在繁殖力旺盛、寿命较短的宿主所典型拥有的高波动种群中尤为常见，但在寿命更长的更稳定种群中也无法完全排除其出现的可能。 5. 综合分析与应用建议：在野生动物疾病监测的设计与实施过程中，应纳入种群规模与疾病流行率的波动因素；本文提出的分析框架可为开展适宜的功效计算（power calculations）提供模板。归根结底，明晰种群动态与流行病学过程的波动所带来的影响，能够助力优化野生动物疾病监测系统，进而更好地刻画、防范地方性（endemic）、新发（emerging）与再现（re-emerging）的疾病威胁。2016年3月10日