Changing spatial patterns of internal migration in Germany: Behavioural shifts or population ageing effect? Code for data analysis

Article: Dörflinger, M., Kolowa, T., Stawarz, N., and H. Rüger (2026): Changing Spatial Patterns of Internal Migration in Germany: Behavioural Shifts or Population Ageing Effect? Population, Space and Place 32(5): e70325. https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.70325 Abstract: A key characteristic of developed societies is population ageing, driven by low fertility and rising life expectancy. In this context, migration has become an increasingly important driver of population change and its spatial distribution. While several studies have examined the impact of population ageing on overall migration intensities, far fewer have investigated how regional population ageing affects spatial patterns of internal migration. Using data for 400 German districts, we employ a decomposition analysis to disentangle how shifts in age composition and age-specific migration behavior have shaped migration flows across the urban–rural continuum from 1991 to 2024. Our findings indicate that changing spatial patterns of internal migration have been driven by behavioral shifts, particularly among young adults. However, shifts in age composition have become more important in recent years. In particular, decreasing migration to large cities since 2011 is largely due to population ageing in urban, intermediate, and rural counties. Data availability: The data underlying this analysis for the years 1991-2015 are available upon reqauest from the authors. The data on internal migration for the years 2016-2024 are not openly available but may be requested from the German Federal Statistical Office. Analysis_Dec.R: R Script for data preparation, decomposition analyses, figures, tables and maps. Notes: RStudio Release "Globemaster Allium" (2026-04-18) used. Files may not be compatible with other versions. Map source: © BKG (2024) dl-de/by-2-0; please see https://sgx.geodatenzentrum.de/web_public/gdz/datenquellen/datenquellen_vg_nuts.pdf