The Future Hydrology of the Colorado River Basin

This paper summarizes the current understanding of future hydrology from the perspective of how that understanding can be incorporated into the Colorado River Simulation System and other river planning models. We also provide scenarios that characterize and estimate plausible future drought conditions, based on the record of past droughts in historic and tree ring-estimated natural flow. Scenarios described in this report, although sometimes of low probability, are based on flows that have occurred in the past or can be reconstructed from the past record of streamflow. If such conditions have happened in the past, they might occur in the future, and these scenarios should be considered in future planning.

本文从如何将当前对未来水文学的理解融入科罗拉多河模拟系统以及其他河流规划模型的角度，对这一理解进行了总结。我们亦提供了基于历史干旱记录和树木年轮估算的自然流量，对可能的未来干旱状况进行特征描述和估计的场景。本报告中所描述的场景，尽管概率有时较低，但均基于过去已发生的或可从过去流量记录中重建的流量。如果此类条件在过去已发生，它们未来也可能再次出现，因此这些场景应在未来的规划中予以考虑。