Iron and Steel Industry Emissions: A Global Analysis of Trends and Drivers

The iron and steel industry (ISI) is important for socio-economic
progress but emits greenhouse gases and air pollutants detrimental
to climate and human health. Understanding its historical emission
trends and drivers is crucial for future warming and pollution interventions.
Here, we offer an exhaustive analysis of global ISI emissions over
the past 60 years, forecasting up to 2050. We evaluate emissions of
carbon dioxide and conventional and unconventional air pollutants,
including heavy metals and polychlorinated dibenzodioxins and dibenzofurans.
Based on this newly established inventory, we dissect the determinants
of past emission trends and future trajectories. Results show varied
trends for different pollutants. Specifically, PM2.5 emissions
decreased consistently during the period 1970 to 2000, attributed
to adoption of advanced production technologies. Conversely, NOx and SO2 began declining recently
due to stringent controls in major contributors such as China, a trend
expected to persist. Currently, end-of-pipe abatement technologies
are key to PM2.5 reduction, whereas process modifications
are central to CO2 mitigation. Projections suggest that
by 2050, developing nations (excluding China) will contribute 52–54%
of global ISI PM2.5 emissions, a rise from 29% in 2019.
Long-term emission curtailment will necessitate the innovation and
widespread adoption of new production and abatement technologies in
emerging economies worldwide.