Modelling 21st-century refugia and the impact of climate change on Amazonia's largest primates

Edaphic and vegetation conditions can render climatically suitable sites
inadequate for a species to persist, constraining the amount of suitable
habitat and the possibilities of tracking preferred climatic conditions as
they shift in response to climate change. We combined climatic and
remotely sensed data to model current and future distributions of nine
extant taxa of ateline primates across the Amazon basin. We used the
models to identify and quantify potential range changes and refugia of
suitable habitats from the present to the latter half of the 21st century.
We applied an ensemble forecasting approach for species distribution
models using 596 spatially rarefied occurrences. We parameterised these
models by combining reflectance data from a basin‐wide Landsat TM/ETM+
image composite, three sets of bioclimatic layers containing data for the
current period, and two different (moderate and worst-case) climate change
scenarios for 2041-2070. Eight out of nine taxa are likely to experience
pronounced range losses, with seven of them predicted to lose over 50% of
their currently suitable habitats irrespective of climate change
scenarios. Modelled ateline richness exhibited a broad decrease in
high-richness areas and a possible redistribution along the northernmost
parts of western Amazonia. Refugia from 21st-century climate change for
the whole complex was mostly concentrated in western Amazonia, especially
in its southern part. We identified hotspots of vulnerability to climate
change and 21st-century refugia for all Amazonian atelines while
accounting for habitat characteristics that are important to guarantee the
continued existence of suitable habitats for these strictly arboreal taxa.
Increasing the understanding of climate change impacts on Amazonia's
largest primates can help to inform spatial conservation planning
decisions and management to sustain forest-dwelling biodiversity over
large areas such as Amazonia.