Climate informed modelling of landscape managed threatened species - Mammals

Modelling of landscape capacity for 75 landscape-managed NSW threatened species. \r\n\r\nLandscape capacity is a measure of how usable habitat is for supporting populations based on the quality of habitat and how easily species can move across the landscape to access sufficient resources to support a population. This project maps climate-informed landscape capacity. This mapping shows how well NSW landscapes can support fauna populations into future climate. The location of climate refugia are identified. These are areas that support species populations through time, from pre-industrial times and into the future.\r\n\r\nThe methods and descriptions of outputs are provided in the [project report](https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/publications/persistence-landscapes-project).\r\n\r\n[Two page species forecasts](https://datasets.seed.nsw.gov.au/dataset/d44cb0df-0242-4db3-9126-8c26aba7f80a/resource/27c36e75-690e-4fcd-88b4-b89bbdfafeba/download/plp_reportcards_final2025.pdf) summarise results for each species. \r\n\r\nEach species model is projected into NARCliM (v1.0) climate futures. The dataset comprises: individual models for 1750, 2000, 2030 and 2070 epochs; 'consensus' maps across 12 climate models for 2070; and multi-species refugia and landscape capacity across time maps ([for the 75 threatened species](https://datasets.seed.nsw.gov.au/dataset/climate-informed-plp-modelling/resource/edf6e375-57c5-4f55-93f0-422a0af1900c), and also including site-managed species [here](https://datasets.seed.nsw.gov.au/dataset/climate-informed-plp-modelling/resource/c76d5cd9-b3d1-4622-a4d5-55aed553e38b)). \r\n\r\nThe individual species geotiff files are grouped into zip files which are large and may take considerable time to download.\r\n\r\nThese resources are outputs of the Persistence in the Landscape Project (PLP). \r\n\r\nThis item contains a zip file of landscape capacity rasters for the following species, for pre-industrial (1750), 2000, 2030 and 2070, based on NARCliM 1.0 projections:\r\n\r\n- _Aepyprymnus rufescens_, **Rufous Bettong**\r\n- _Cercartetus nanus_, **Eastern Pygmy-possum**\r\n- _Dasyurus maculatus_, **Spotted-tailed Quoll**\r\n- _Macropus dorsalis_, **Black-striped Wallaby**\r\n- _Macropus parma_, **Parma Wallaby** - updated to _Notamacropus parma_ in the report\r\n- _Ningaui yvonneae_, **Southern Ningaui**\r\n- _Petauroides volans_, **Southern Greater Glider**\r\n- _Petaurus norfolcensis_, **Squirrel Glider**\r\n- _Phascogale tapoatafa_, **Brush-tailed Phascogale**\r\n- _Pseudomys oralis_, **Hastings River Mouse**\r\n- _Thylogale stigmatica_, **Red-legged Pademelon**

新南威尔士州（NSW）75种受景观管理的受威胁物种的景观承载力（landscape capacity）建模研究。

景观承载力是基于栖息地质量，结合物种穿越景观以获取足够种群维持所需资源的难易程度，用以衡量栖息地对种群的承载可用性。本项目构建了气候适配型景观承载力制图，该制图可展示新南威尔士州的景观在未来气候情境下支撑野生动物种群的能力。研究识别了气候避难所（climate refugia）的分布位置，此类区域可在从工业革命前直至未来的时段内持续支撑物种种群存续。

本项目的研究方法与成果说明详见[项目报告](https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/publications/persistence-landscapes-project)。

[两页式物种预测报告](https://datasets.seed.nsw.gov.au/dataset/d44cb0df-0242-4db3-9126-8c26aba7f80a/resource/27c36e75-690e-4fcd-88b4-b89bbdfafeba/download/plp_reportcards_final2025.pdf)汇总了各物种种群的预测结果。

各物种种群模型均基于NARCliM（v1.0）气候未来情景进行投射。本数据集包含：1750年、2000年、2030年及2070年四个时间节点的单物种种群模型；基于12种气候模型整合得到的2070年共识映射图；以及多物种气候避难所与跨时间尺度景观承载力映射图（[针对75种受威胁物种的数据集](https://datasets.seed.nsw.gov.au/dataset/climate-informed-plp-modelling/resource/edf6e375-57c5-4f55-93f0-422a0af1900c)，同时包含场地管理物种的数据集见[此处](https://datasets.seed.nsw.gov.au/dataset/climate-informed-plp-modelling/resource/c76d5cd9-b3d1-4622-a4d5-55aed553e38b)）。

各物种的地理标记图像文件格式（GeoTIFF）文件已打包为压缩包，文件体积较大，下载可能耗时较长。

本数据集所有成果均出自“景观存续项目（Persistence in the Landscape Project，PLP）”。

本条目包含基于NARCliM 1.0气候投射得到的以下物种的景观承载力栅格数据压缩包，覆盖工业革命前（1750年）、2000年、2030年及2070年四个时间节点：
- _Aepyprymnus rufescens_，**红褐袋狸（Rufous Bettong）**
- _Cercartetus nanus_，**东部侏儒负鼠（Eastern Pygmy-possum）**
- _Dasyurus maculatus_，**斑尾袋鼬（Spotted-tailed Quoll）**
- _Macropus dorsalis_，**黑纹沙袋鼠（Black-striped Wallaby）**
- _Macropus parma_，**帕尔马沙袋鼠（Parma Wallaby）**——本报告中已将其分类学名称更新为_Notamacropus parma_
- _Ningaui yvonneae_，**南部狭足袋鼩（Southern Ningaui）**
- _Petauroides volans_，**南部大滑翔袋貂（Southern Greater Glider）**
- _Petaurus norfolcensis_，**松鼠滑翔袋貂（Squirrel Glider）**
- _Phascogale tapoatafa_，**刷尾袋鼩（Brush-tailed Phascogale）**
- _Pseudomys oralis_，**黑斯廷斯河鼠（Hastings River Mouse）**
- _Thylogale stigmatica_，**红腿沙袋鼠（Red-legged Pademelon）**