Predictability of Steamboat Geyser Eruptions on Short and Long Timescales

Steamboat Geyser in Yellowstone erupts at irregular intervals, making eruption timing and duration difficult to predict. By analyzing eruption records and seismic data, we find that longer seismically quiet periods following eruptions are systematically followed by longer hydrothermal tremor episodes before the next eruption, a relationship that enables quantitative forecasting of both tremor duration and subsequent eruption timing. We further show that Steamboat's eruption frequency has declined systematically since the onset of the current active phase, following an exponential relaxation pattern consistent across all three documented active phases, suggesting the system is progressively approaching dormancy. Forward projection of this model indicates the current phase may conclude around 2030. Together, these results demonstrate that Steamboat's apparently irregular behavior is governed by physically interpretable, data-driven relationships operating across multiple timescales, providing a framework for forecasting activity in episodic hydrothermal systems.