Developing Guidelines to Aid in Communicating Uncertainty

The primary focus of this study is to address specific issues relating to the influence of motivated cognitions and the role of numeracy and other factors as they influence people's understanding and use of information about outcome uncertainty. The objectives include improving understanding of how people conceptualize and use uncertain information; improving the ability of analysts, faciliators, and decision makers to communicate uncertainty effectively; increasing the interest of researchers from a range of disciplines (e.g., economics, biology, security, medicine), into the understanding of uncertainty and the development of guidelines to encourage greater consistency in how uncertainty is treated; and improving the ability of individuals to integrate uncertainty in an accurate and meaningful manner into their evaluations of alternative actions and strategies.