Replication data for: Do Sex Offender Registration and Notification Laws Affect Criminal Behavior?

Data Access Due to the number of files in this dataset, we recommend using the Dataverse API to access the datasets and files in this collection rather than the user interface. Sex offenders have become the targets of some of the most far-reaching and novel crime legislation in the U.S. Two key innovations in recent decades have been registration and notification laws which, respectively, require that convicted sex offenders provide valid contact information to law enforcement authorities, and that information about sex offenders be made public. Using the evolution of state law during the 1990s and 2000s, we study how registration and notification affect the frequency of reported sex offenses and the incidence of such offenses across victims. We find evidence that registration reduces the frequency of sex offenses by providing law enforcement with information on local sex offenders. As we predict using a simple model of criminal behavior, this decrease in crime is concentrated among “local” victims (e.g., friends, acquaintances, neighbors) with no evidence of less crime occurring against strangers. We also find evidence that notification has reduced crime, but not, as legislators anticipated, by disrupting the criminal conduct of convicted sex offenders. Our results instead suggest that notification deters nonregistered sex offenders, and may, in fact, increase recidivism among registered offenders by reducing the relative attractiveness of a crime-free life. This finding is consistent with work by criminologists showing that notification imposes social and financial costs on registered sex offenders, perhaps offsetting the relative benefits of forgoing criminal activity. We regard this latter finding as important, given that the purpose of notification is to reduce recidivism.数据获取说明：鉴于本数据集包含大量文件，我们建议通过Dataverse API（而非用户界面）访问该合集内的数据集与文件。性犯罪者已成为美国多项影响深远且极具创新性的刑事立法的规制对象。近几十年来的两项核心立法创新分别为登记制度与告知制度：前者要求已定罪的性犯罪者向执法机构提供有效联系方式，后者则要求将性犯罪者的相关信息公之于众。本研究依托1990年代至2000年代各州法律的演变历程，探究登记制度与告知制度如何影响已上报性犯罪的发案频次，以及此类犯罪在不同受害群体间的分布特征。研究结果显示，登记制度通过向执法机构提供本地性犯罪者的相关信息，降低了性犯罪的发案率。正如我们通过简化的犯罪行为模型所预测的那样，犯罪率的下降主要集中在“本地”受害者群体（例如朋友、熟人、邻居），未发现针对陌生人的犯罪率出现下降的证据。我们同时发现，告知制度确实降低了性犯罪的发案率，但并非如立法者预期的那样，通过干扰已定罪性犯罪者的犯罪行为实现这一效果。与之相反，研究结果表明，告知制度威慑了未进行登记的性犯罪者；而实际上，由于该制度降低了无犯罪生活的相对吸引力，它可能会增加已登记性犯罪者的再犯率。这一发现与犯罪学界的相关研究结论一致：告知制度会给已登记的性犯罪者带来社会与经济成本，这或许抵消了其放弃犯罪活动所能获得的相对收益。鉴于告知制度的设立初衷是降低再犯率，我们认为这一后续发现具有重要意义。