Multi-model seasonal reforecasts of river discharge for Europe

This dataset provides hydrological seasonal reforecasts of monthly mean river discharge across Europe for the period 1993 to 2016. The first is an E-HYPE multi-model system comprising eight model realisations using a catchment-based resolution. The second comprises the E-HYPEgrid, VIC-WUR and LISFLOOD-EFAS hydrological models at a 5km gridded resolution.
The initialisation of the hydrological seasonal forecast uses the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) daily gridded meteorological observations (EFAS-Meteo) up until the start of the reforecast, and the subsequent integration of the meteorological seasonal reforecasts using all 25 members of the ECMWF seasonal forecast system 5 (SEAS5) meteorological reforecasts for the period January 1993 to December 2016. Seasonal reforecasts are produced to past dates but using the same model as the operaional forecast. A bias adjustment step using quantile mapping for temperature and precipitation was used for the E-HYPE and ViC-WUR models to minimize drift in the forecasts caused by biases in SEAS5 compared to EFAS-Meteo.
The final output is in the form of monthly mean river discharge with a lead time of seven months for each reforcast starting date. The context of the forecasts is provided by upper and lower terciles of the historical EFAS-Meteo driven simulation for each month of the year.
This dataset is produced by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute on behalf of the Copernicus Climate Change Service in collaboration with the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS).

本数据集提供了1993年至2016年期间欧洲各月平均河流径流的季节性再预报，涉及水文领域。其中，首个预报系统为E-HYPE多模型体系，由八个基于流域分辨率的模型实现组成。第二个预报系统包括E-HYPEgrid、VIC-WUR和LISFLOOD-EFAS水文模型，以5公里网格分辨率进行构建。水文季节性预报的初始化采用欧洲洪水预警系统（EFAS）每日网格气象观测数据（EFAS-Meteo），直至再预报的开始，随后整合使用欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）季节性预报系统第5版（SEAS5）的全部25个成员的气象再预报，时间范围为1993年1月至2016年12月。季节性再预报以过去日期为背景，但采用与业务预报相同的模型。为E-HYPE和ViC-WUR模型进行了偏置调整步骤，采用分位数映射方法对温度和降水量进行调整，以最小化SEAS5相对于EFAS-Meteo的偏置所导致的预报漂移。最终输出结果为每月平均河流径流，再预报起始日期的提前期为七个月。预报的背景信息由每年每月历史EFAS-Meteo驱动模拟的上四分位数和下四分位数提供。该数据集由瑞典气象水文研究所代表哥白尼气候变化服务（Copernicus Climate Change Service）与哥白尼应急管理服务（Copernicus Emergency Management Service，CEMS）合作生成。