Drivers, decoupling effects, and implications of carbon emissions from China's agri-food systems

Previous research has predominantly analyzed the drivers of greenhouse gas emissions in the agricultural production stage, while fewer studies have conducted a life-cycle analysis of carbon emission drivers in the agri-food system from both production and consumption perspectives. This study, utilizing data from the FAO database, National Bureau of Statistics, and the Global Environment Multi-Regional Input-Output model, constructed a database of carbon emissions from China's agri-food system at both the production and consumption ends from 1990 to 2022. Building on this, the research comprehensively applied the Tapio decoupling model and the LMDI model to analyze the driving factors of carbon emissions in China's agri-food system over the past 30+ years from this dual perspective. The results show that after 2015, a significant turning point emerged in the agri-food system's carbon emissions. Concurrently, the decoupling status of carbon emissions from economic growth shifted from weak decoupling to strong decoupling. Economic development level was identified as the primary driving factor for emissions, accounting for over 90% of the cumulative contribution. From the production end: The decline in carbon emissions per unit of output value was the most significant emission reduction factor, contributing approximately 78% historically. However, in recent years, the declining share of the agri-food system's output value resulting from industrial restructuring has become the key driver of emission reduction, contributing over 50%. From the consumption end: Historically, factors promoting emission reduction included rising food prices, declining Engel's coefficient, decreasing share of household consumption, falling carbon emissions per unit of food consumption, and a decreasing final consumption rate. Among these, the reduction in carbon emissions per unit of food consumption has become the most important factor, accounting for 31.43% during 2018-2021. A dual strategy targeting both the production and consumption ends should be implemented. This can be achieved by optimizing the agri-food supply chain and promoting its green transformation through measures such as green technology R&D, industrial structure optimization, and supportive policy guidance.