Model data from: Revisiting the status of the Arctic’s Last Ice Area as a refuge for marine predators

The Last Ice Area (LIA), located north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago
and Greenland, has the Arctic’s oldest and thickest sea ice. The LIA is
hypothesized to be a potential climate refuge for ice-dependent top
predators as Arctic sea ice continues to decline. However, recent studies
indicate the region may be less resilient than expected. We used a coupled
biophysical model to examine the impact of changes in sea ice and nutrient
availability on the LIA marine planktonic ecosystem and the ecological
potential of this critical area. The model was used to generate two
downscaled simulations, which were forced by two IPCC AR6 climate models
(GFDL-ESM4 and CNRM-6-1-HR using the SSP5-8.5 shared socioeconomic
pathway), to investigate potential changes in primary productivity (PP)
with different rates of future warming. Both downscaled model runs, which
captured observed sea-ice dynamics, predicted declines in LIA sea-ice
concentration and thickness. Under CNRM-6-1-HR, summer sea ice was largely
absent from the LIA by 2055–2070, shortly after it disappeared elsewhere
in the Arctic. Under GFDL-ESM4, some summer sea ice persisted through
2070, although concentration and thickness were low. Concurrently with
declining sea ice, both models predicted increases in PP through 2070,
with annual values peaking in August. While increased PP would support
higher trophic levels, ice-dependent top predators require an ice platform
for foraging and resting. Our approach of integrating physical and
biological forecasts is a step towards a more complete picture to date of
anticipated ecological changes in the LIA. We identify future research
needs, which include evaluating additional climate models and forcing
scenarios, collecting in-situ ecological data, including top predators,
and a mechanistic understanding of how lower-level ecological changes will
affect the life history of top predators.