Potential Impacts of Climate Change on World Food Supply: Datasets from a Major Crop Modeling Study

The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on World Food Supply: Datasets from a Major Crop Modeling Study contain projected country and regional changes in grain crop yields due to global climate change. Equilibrium and transient scenarios output from General Circulation Models (GCMs) with three levels of farmer adaptations to climate change were utilized to generate crop yield estimates of wheat, rice, coarse grains (barley and maize), and protein feed (soybean) at 125 agricultural sites representing major world agricultural regions. Projected yields at the agricultural sites were aggregated to major trading regions, and fed into the Basic Linked Systems (BLS) global trade model to produce country and regional estimates of potential price increases, food shortages, and risk of hunger. These datasets are produced by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and are distributed by the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN). To provide an assessment of potential climate change impacts on world crop production, including quantitative estimates of yield changes of major food.《气候变化对全球粮食供应的潜在影响：一项大型作物建模研究数据集》包含了全球气候变化引发的谷物作物产量国家与区域变化预测数据。研究采用了来自大气环流模式（General Circulation Models, GCMs）的平衡态与瞬变态情景输出结果，结合三个等级的农户气候适应措施，对代表全球主要农业区域的125个农业站点的小麦、水稻、杂粮（大麦与玉米）以及蛋白饲料作物（大豆）的产量进行了估算。随后，研究将各农业站点的预测产量聚合至主要贸易区域，并输入至基础关联系统（Basic Linked Systems, BLS）全球贸易模型，进而生成各国及各区域的潜在价格上涨、粮食短缺与饥饿风险评估数据。本数据集由戈达德空间研究所（Goddard Institute for Space Studies, GISS）制作，并由哥伦比亚大学国际地球科学信息网络中心（CIESIN）发布。 本数据集旨在评估气候变化对全球作物生产的潜在影响，包括主要粮食产量变化的定量估算。