Expectations for Automated Vehicles, 2018-2023

Automated vehicles (AVs) may represent the most profound technological change in road transport since the rise of vehicle mass production, with reductions in energy demand being one of the many anticipated benefits. This project has explored expectations regarding the potential energy-saving benefits of AVs among two groups ‘professionals’ and the general public.

The project has used a Delphi study design. The Delphi method offers an exploratory, flexible and iterative technique to obtain insights into what futures might look like when uncertainty is large. This is the case with AVs as much remains unclear if and when fully autonomous vehicles will be introduced on the UK roads and how automation may interact with electrification and a possible shift away from individual ownership towards forms of shared ownership and use. Delphi studies typically consist of several rounds of surveys that are increasingly conducted online in which participants receive feedback between rounds and can adapt their responses and views based on that feedback. Two separate Delphi studies, each consisting of three rounds, were conducted sequentially in 2019-2020.

Delphi studies have traditionally been used to build consensus among participants but this often marginalises more radical imaginings of the future and may underappreciate controversies around future developments. This project has, therefore adopted a dissensus-oriented Delphi, which cultivates divergence of views and is particularly appropriate for emergent topics such as the expected effects on transport and energy of vehicle automation.

The project was part of the Digital Society theme within the Centre for Energy Demand Solutions (CREDS), which was funded by UK Research and Innovation (grant number: EP/R035288/1)