Unveiling the Ecological Drivers of Bat-Borne Viral Epidemics: A Climate-Driven Risk Assessment

Bats serve as natural reservoirs for numerous lethal viruses, significantly threatening global public health. Despite the substantial rise in identified bat-hosted viruses, our understanding of their ecological dynamics remains limited, hindering the development of effective preventive strategies for bat-borne viral diseases. By examining 19 underlying variables, this study investigates the complex relationships between 1,350 bat species and 68 viral genera, focusing on potentially infectious (PIVs) and epidemic viruses (PEVs). Phylogenetic and environmental analyses reveal uneven viral diversity across bat families, driven by temperature seasonality, host life-history traits (e.g., longevity, litter size), and migratory behavior. Additionally, socioeconomic factors, including human population density and GDP per capita, amplify viral detectability and spillover risks. While PIV-carrying bats are distributed across diverse biomes, current hotspots for PEV-carrying bats are concentrated in tropical seasonal forests, temperate regions, and areas with high human activity. Climate change projections for 2050 indicate significant shifts in the distribution of bats harboring PEVs, with viruses like SARS-related coronaviruses and Nipah viruses expanding into colder, drier, and higher-latitude regions. Concurrently, high-risk zones for human-bat interactions are expected to grow due to the combined impacts of climate change and urban population expansion. These findings underscore the critical need to integrate ecological, environmental, and socioeconomic data for assessing zoonotic risks. Proactive surveillance and intervention strategies, particularly in dynamic hotspots experiencing rapid environmental and societal changes, will be essential to mitigating the emergence of bat-borne epidemics in an era of global change.