Future Ecosystem Services in Germany: A Model-based Approach Using Agricultural Change Scenarios

Here, the effects of future agriculture change scenarios (ACS) on two biodiversity-related ES (pollination supply, habitat quality) and crop production as a proxy for food security in 2015 (Baseline) and 2050 (LaC, LFLN, LfS) were modelled. The modelling approach was applied, incorporating the three ACS and detailed background information on the selected ES. Pollination sypply and habitat quality were modelled with InVEST (Natural Capital Project, 2025), while crop production was derived from NDVI-based methods (Ai et al., 2024b; Qiu et al., 2021; Yang et al., 2024a). Model outputs were evaluated with respect to (1) changes in overall and spatial ES supply, (2) the extent and distribution of ES hotspot areas, and (3) the overall relationships and proportions of synergistic relationships among ES within each ACS.