Experimental drugs in clinical trials for COPD: artificial intelligence via machine learning approach to predict the successful advance from early-stage development to approval

Therapeutic advances in drug therapy of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) really effective in suppressing the pathological processes underlying the disease deterioration are still needed. Artificial Intelligence (AI) via Machine Learning (ML) may represent an effective tool to predict clinical development of investigational agents. Experimental drugs in Phase I and II development for COPD from early 2014 to late 2022 were identified in the ClinicalTrials.gov database. Different ML models, trained from prior knowledge on clinical trial success, were used to predict the probability that experimental drugs will successfully advance toward approval in COPD, according to Bayesian inference as follows: ≤25% low probability, >25% and ≤50% moderate probability, >50% and ≤75% high probability, and >75% very high probability. The Artificial Neural Network and Random Forest ML models indicated that, among the current experimental drugs in clinical trials for COPD, only the bifunctional muscarinic antagonist - β₂-adrenoceptor agonists (MABA) navafenterol and batefenterol, the inhaled corticosteroid (ICS)/MABA fluticasone furoate/batefenterol, and the bifunctional phosphodiesterase (PDE) 3/4 inhibitor ensifentrine resulted to have a moderate to very high probability of being approved in the next future, however not before 2025.