Impact of urbanization on abundance and phenology of caterpillars and consequences for breeding in an insectivorous bird

Urbanization can have marked effects on plant and animal populations’ phenology, population size, predator-prey interactions and reproductive success. These aspects are rarely studied simultaneously in a single system, and some are rarely investigated, e.g. how insect phenology responds to urban development. Here, we study a tri-trophic system of trees – phytophagous insects (caterpillars) – insectivorous birds (great tits) to assess how urbanization influences i) the phenology of each component of this system, ii) insect abundance and iii) avian reproductive success. We use data from two urban and two forest sites in Hungary, central Europe, collected over four consecutive years. Despite a trend of earlier leaf emergence in urban sites there is no evidence for an earlier peak in caterpillar abundance. Thus, contrary to the frequently stated prediction in the literature, the earlier breeding of urban bird populations is not associated with an earlier peak in caterpillar availability. De...