Replication Data for: A Regression Analysis of the probability of a recession and student loan debt utilizing data between 1993-2019

Over 44.7 million Americans carry student loan debt, with the total amount valued at approximately $1.31 trillion (Quarterly Report, 2019). Ergo, consumer spending, a factor of GDP, is stifled and negatively impacts the economy (Frizell, 2014, p. 22). This study examined the relationship between student loan debt and the probability of a recession in the near future, as well as the effects of proposed student loan forgiveness policies through the use of a created model. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s website (FRED) was used to extract data regarding total GDP per quarter and student loan debt per quarter (\"Federal Reserve Economic Data,\" 2019). Through the combination of the student loan debt per quarter and total GDP per quarter datasets, the percentage of total GDP composed of student loan debt per quarter was calculated and fitted to a logistic curve. Future quarterly values for total GDP and the percentage of total GDP composed by student loan debt per quarter were found through Long Short Term Models and Euler’s Method, respectively. Through the creation of a probability of recession index, the probability of recession per quarter was compared to the percentage of total GDP composed by student loan debt per quarter to construct an exponential regression model. Utilizing a primarily quantitative method of analysis, the percentage of total GDP composed by student loan debt per quarter was found to be strongly associated[p < 1.26696* 10-8]with the probability of recession per quarter(p(R)), with the p(R) tending to peak as the percentage of total GDP composed of student loan debt per quarter strayed away from the carrying capacity of the logistic curve. Inputting the student loan debt forgiveness policies of potential congressional bills proposed by lawmakers found that eliminating 49.7 % and 36.7% of student loan debt would reduce the recession probabilities to be 1.73545*10-29% and 9.74474*10-25%, respectively.截至2019年季度报告数据，全美已有超4470万美国人背负学生贷款债务（student loan debt），债务总额约达1.31万亿美元。因此，作为国内生产总值（Gross Domestic Product, GDP）组成部分的居民消费受到抑制，进而对整体经济产生负面影响（Frizell, 2014，第22页）。本研究通过构建自定义模型，探究了学生贷款债务与近期经济衰退概率之间的关联，同时评估了拟议中的学生贷款减免政策所产生的影响。本研究依托圣路易斯联邦储备银行的联邦储备经济数据（Federal Reserve Economic Data, FRED）平台（"联邦储备经济数据"，2019），提取了季度国内生产总值总额与季度学生贷款债务相关数据。通过整合季度学生贷款债务与季度国内生产总值总额两类数据集，本研究计算得出各季度学生贷款债务占国内生产总值总额的比例，并将该比例拟合至逻辑斯蒂曲线（logistic curve）。本研究分别通过长短期记忆模型（Long Short-Term Memory, LSTM）与欧拉法（Euler’s Method），预测得到了季度国内生产总值总额与季度学生贷款债务占比的未来数值。本研究通过构建经济衰退概率指数，将各季度经济衰退概率与对应季度的学生贷款债务占比进行关联，进而构建指数回归模型。本研究主要采用定量分析方法，结果显示：各季度学生贷款债务占国内生产总值总额的比例与当季经济衰退概率存在显著关联（p < 1.26696×10^-8）；当该占比偏离逻辑斯蒂曲线的承载能力时，经济衰退概率（p(R)）将趋于峰值。针对议员们拟议的国会法案中的学生贷款减免政策进行模拟测算后发现，若分别减免49.7%与36.7%的学生贷款债务，经济衰退概率将分别降至1.73545×10^-29%与9.74474×10^-25%。